EEDAR believes GTA V won’t hit until fiscal 2011

Recently, gaming’s Nostradamus, Michael Pachter, confirmed that Rockstar North was working on Grand Theft Auto V. In the same statement, Pachter said that he expected GTA V to drop at some point in 2010 or at the latest, 2011. Interesting. We decided to reach out and see what another analyst thought. Enter EEDAR’s director of analyst services.

Analyst director Jesse Divnich agrees that GTA V is happening, however, Divnich isn’t exactly buying Pachter’s timeline. According to Divnich, Take-Two’s 2010 portfolio is off the chain, and if the Agent drops in the same year, GTA V could “cannibalize” sales of the new IP. So, even if GTA V was completed before October 31, 2010, he believes Take-Two would be shooting itself in the foot by releasing it in 2010.

Analyst fight.

“Rockstar North’s primary development team is currently focusing on two titles, GTA V and Agent. It is correct that there is a small subset team whose only job is to work on upcoming GTA IV DLC,” Divnich told Destructoid.

“Given the delay of the original GTA IV, it would be difficult to conclude with certainty that the next installment will hit before October 31st 2010. Furthermore, Take-Two is already on track to obliterate our wallets over the next 12 months with BioShock 2, Max Payne 3, Borderlands, Mafia II, Red Dead Redemption, and Agent,” he continued. “I do not see the financial need to stack their next fiscal year — ending October 31, 2010 — anymore than it already is. In addition, if Agent is released in 2010, I would expect it in the back-half, which if a GTA V was to hit store shelves plus or minus three months of that date, it could cannibalize sales.”

We asked CEO cat* when it thought GTA V would drop. It looked at us, blinked a few times, then went back to sleep again. We’ll take that to mean 2011.

^{*CEO cat doubles as our analyst in times of dire need.}